As Greece more and more turns out to be unwilling or uncapable of leaving the Euro zone, economists have thought about alternative ways to increase their economy’s competitiveness. An interesting approach has now been formulated by two economists from Haravad and one from Princeton:
Even when the exchange rate cannot be devalued, a small set of conventional fiscal instruments can robustly replicate the real allocations attained under a nominal exchange rate devaluation.
As the authors show, there are basically two policy options:
- increase both import tariffs and export subsidies
- increase VAT and lower pay roll taxes
In theory, these policies have zero impact on the fiscal budget but increase the country’s international competitiveness. Whether or not this can “solve” the economic mess in Greece, however, is more than disputable.
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The advantages of “fiscal devaluation” are not limited to trade. A VAT, unlike a payroll tax, exempts the value added by labour in the formation of capital, and therefore encourages net investment. Not all countries can be net exporters; but all countries CAN be net investors.
For greater impact, fiscal devaluation can be expanded so that it replaces or offsets not only payroll tax but also pay-as-you-go personal income tax; see http://is.gd/maxifd .