Archive for August 28th, 2011

About four months ago, I wrote about which candidates are likely to play an important role in the 2012 presidential election. Much has happened since, so it might be worthwhile to revisit Intrade’s share prices:

Barack Obama 51.4 percent (previously 58.3)
Rick Perry 19.1 percent
Mitt Romney 13.0 percent (12.5)
Jon Huntsman 4.5 percent
Ron Paul 3.4 percent (2.1)
Sarah Palin 2.7
Hillary Clinton 2.3
Michele Bachman 1.7

We observe that President Obama has already lost about seven percentage points although the GOP is still far from having a clear candidate. This drop could be explained by America’s downgrade and ongoing high unemployment rates.

Among Republican hopefuls, Rick Perry has surged to become the new front runner. Mitt Romney’s chance meanwhile has not changed much. Ranked third and forth, Huntsman and Paul are still trying to get more attention and support.

With regard to other candidates we notice that some of those potential candidates that were relatively strong in April are already out of the race. Among these are Donald Trump (in April 4.8 percent), Tim Pawlenty (6.0 percent), or Mitch Daniels (3.2 percent).

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